2021年10月

资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

The global stock rally stalled in September as accumulating headwinds weighed on markets. U.S. stocks were overdue for a pause, having risen seven consecutive months. 不断加剧的通货膨胀, 加剧供应链中断和瓶颈, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide, 华盛顿出现僵局迹象，加剧了紧张局势, Covid波动情况下, and a potential collapsing of China’s second-largest real estate developer top the list of catalysts.

在9月2日创下历史新高后，美国股市下跌&P 500回落5.月底的1%. 其4.6% total return marked the worst monthly loss since the pandemic’s emergence and was the first monthly decline since January.  对于第三季度，美国经济增长放缓.S. 大盘股基准指数小幅收于+0.6%的涨幅.

尽管9月份出现回落，第三季度业绩持平，但美国股市仍在下跌&p500给出了令人印象深刻的+15.年初至今总回报率为9%，11个股票板块均有所上升. Energy stocks are having their best year in four decades and were the lone winner in September (+9.4%)，因为油价达到了三年来的最高点. 材料则落后(-7).2%). 如果有更邪恶的事情在酝酿, 九游会游戏官网预计传统的防御性股(公用事业股-6.2%)和史泰博(-4).1%)表现. 他们没有.

国际发达市场(-2.9%)和新兴市场(-4.0%)的跌幅与美国类似.S. 但这些海外市场在第三季度下滑(-0.5%)和(8.分别为01%). 由于监管部门的打压和恒大的麻烦, a selloff in China pushed the broad emerging market index into negative territory YTD (-1.3%). 中国企业占新兴市场基准股指的30%.

The mildly hawkish Fed comments during its September meeting pressured bond yields. 作为对通胀数据上升的回应(5.8月份折合成年率3%), the Fed hinted it would likely begin tapering its bond purchases before year-end. 截至9月，10年期美国国债收益率为1.49%, up 18 basis points (bps) for the month, and has since marched above 1.6%. 广义U.S. 债券综合指数下跌(-0.87%) for the month, was flat for the quarter, and remained negative YTD (-1.6%). The returns on all significant bond segments were negative in September, but TIPS (+1.8%)和高收益企业(+0.9%)在第三季度有所增长.

Headline risks are everywhere, and investors are justifiably focused on tail risks. 九游会游戏官网还发现值得注意的是，美国主要股市中的大多数股票.S. 索引(年代&普尔500指数、罗素2000指数和纳斯达克100指数)已经修正. 看到九游会游戏官网的 月相图. 如果不是因为它的三大组成部分，S&P 500指数本应是负的季度. 苹果、微软和谷歌贡献了75个基点的收益. 其他497只股票下跌-17个基点.

Stocks have performed best during the fourth quarter over the past two decades with the S&P 500平均4.1%的涨幅. 该指数今年尚未修正，而且随时可能修正. However, some signs suggest the growth scare may be sufficiently priced in. 基本面是合理的, and a supportive backdrop exists for equities: strong household balance sheets, 一个强大的企业资本支出周期, 有效的生产力, 和充足的流动性.

This week Q3 earnings season kicks off and may provide a basis for further upside as last year’s comps remain favorable. 就像沃伦·巴菲特，在九游会游戏官网 月度报价， 九游会游戏官网的经济学主任约翰·西尔维亚经常提醒九游会游戏官网, what’s important for investors is to focus on the data and underlying economic forces, 而不是由政治或意识形态议程驱动的叙事.

 

约翰·西尔维亚的见解， 经济学主任

• September’s employment report highlights both the cyclical and structural aspects of the labor market and the economy. On the cyclical side, there were solid gains in manufacturing, construction, as well as trade & 运输. 休闲 & 酒店业确实增长缓慢，但仍增加了就业机会. A problem was the drop in local school employment that reflects both a seasonal adjustment and a signal that local schools have learned to do with fewer teachers.
• Structural issues are manifested in the drop in both the labor force and the employment-population ratio compared to February 2020. Therefore, it is not surprising that firms are complaining about the lack of skilled labor. The demand side of the labor market is strong; however, the supply side is lacking.
• 领先的经济指标继续传出好消息, 比如失业索赔和工厂订单/发货, which indicate continued positive economic growth above the two percent long-run trend for the rest of the year. Building permits have slowed and are consistent with the rising housing affordability problem.
• 2021年, 经济增长率预计为6%, 消费者支出稳步增长, 住宅投资, 和商业投资. 预计2022年中国经济增速将放缓至4%. Inflation rates have risen over the past year and are expected to present several challenges to investors as real returns on cash and sovereign debt continue to be negative.
• Benchmark Treasury yields have risen in the last month as statements from Federal Reserve policymakers have emphasized a move toward tapering soon. 与此同时, 美国国债发行预计将较一年前减少, 限制美联储缩减购债规模时利率的上升. However, persistent inflation remains an issue for Treasury debt owners and buyers.
• 与美联储的政策意图一致, 九游会游戏官网预计通胀和基准利率将上升, 与此同时，美国经济也在稳步下滑.S. 美元价值. The longer-run view, consistent with Fed intentions, is for higher inflation and interest rates. Therefore, after inflation and taxes, real returns are often negative.
• 即使在经济扩张的情况下, there are periods of accelerating and decelerating growth/inflation benchmarks that can distract from the long-term goals of investors. Investment opportunities and risks change as the economic recovery evolves, 通常是由于经济和政策的变化. 除了, a new political administration has introduced new priorities concerning taxes, 能源开发, 和基础设施. 所有这些都需要进一步审查您的投资组合.